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On the Need to Align Intent and Implementation in Uncertainty Quantification for Machine Learning
Trivedi, Shubhendu, Nord, Brian D.
Quantifying uncertainties for machine learning (ML) models is a foundational challenge in modern data analysis. This challenge is compounded by at least two key aspects of the field: (a) inconsistent terminology surrounding uncertainty and estimation across disciplines, and (b) the varying technical requirements for establishing trustworthy uncertainties in diverse problem contexts. In this position paper, we aim to clarify the depth of these challenges by identifying these inconsistencies and articulating how different contexts impose distinct epistemic demands. We examine the current landscape of estimation targets (e.g., prediction, inference, simulation-based inference), uncertainty constructs (e.g., frequentist, Bayesian, fiducial), and the approaches used to map between them. Drawing on the literature, we highlight and explain examples of problematic mappings. To help address these issues, we advocate for standards that promote alignment between the \textit{intent} and \textit{implementation} of uncertainty quantification (UQ) approaches. We discuss several axes of trustworthiness that are necessary (if not sufficient) for reliable UQ in ML models, and show how these axes can inform the design and evaluation of uncertainty-aware ML systems. Our practical recommendations focus on scientific ML, offering illustrative cases and use scenarios, particularly in the context of simulation-based inference (SBI).
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DFM: Deep Fourier Mimic for Expressive Dance Motion Learning
Watanabe, Ryo, Li, Chenhao, Hutter, Marco
As entertainment robots gain popularity, the demand for natural and expressive motion, particularly in dancing, continues to rise. Traditionally, dancing motions have been manually designed by artists, a process that is both labor-intensive and restricted to simple motion playback, lacking the flexibility to incorporate additional tasks such as locomotion or gaze control during dancing. To overcome these challenges, we introduce Deep Fourier Mimic (DFM), a novel method that combines advanced motion representation with Reinforcement Learning (RL) to enable smooth transitions between motions while concurrently managing auxiliary tasks during dance sequences. While previous frequency domain based motion representations have successfully encoded dance motions into latent parameters, they often impose overly rigid periodic assumptions at the local level, resulting in reduced tracking accuracy and motion expressiveness, which is a critical aspect for entertainment robots. By relaxing these locally periodic constraints, our approach not only enhances tracking precision but also facilitates smooth transitions between different motions. Furthermore, the learned RL policy that supports simultaneous base activities, such as locomotion and gaze control, allows entertainment robots to engage more dynamically and interactively with users rather than merely replaying static, pre-designed dance routines.
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$\Lambda$CDM and early dark energy in latent space: a data-driven parametrization of the CMB temperature power spectrum
Piras, Davide, Herold, Laura, Lucie-Smith, Luisa, Komatsu, Eiichiro
Finding the best parametrization for cosmological models in the absence of first-principle theories is an open question. We propose a data-driven parametrization of cosmological models given by the disentangled 'latent' representation of a variational autoencoder (VAE) trained to compress cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature power spectra. We consider a broad range of $\Lambda$CDM and beyond-$\Lambda$CDM cosmologies with an additional early dark energy (EDE) component. We show that these spectra can be compressed into 5 ($\Lambda$CDM) or 8 (EDE) independent latent parameters, as expected when using temperature power spectra alone, and which reconstruct spectra at an accuracy well within the Planck errors. These latent parameters have a physical interpretation in terms of well-known features of the CMB temperature spectrum: these include the position, height and even-odd modulation of the acoustic peaks, as well as the gravitational lensing effect. The VAE also discovers one latent parameter which entirely isolates the EDE effects from those related to $\Lambda$CDM parameters, thus revealing a previously unknown degree of freedom in the CMB temperature power spectrum. We further showcase how to place constraints on the latent parameters using Planck data as typically done for cosmological parameters, obtaining latent values consistent with previous $\Lambda$CDM and EDE cosmological constraints. Our work demonstrates the potential of a data-driven reformulation of current beyond-$\Lambda$CDM phenomenological models into the independent degrees of freedom to which the data observables are sensitive.
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Nonparametric Bayesian inference on multivariate exponential families
William R. Vega-Brown, Marek Doniec, Nicholas G. Roy
We develop a model by choosing the maximum entropy distribution from the set of models satisfying certain smoothness and independence criteria; we show that inference on this model generalizes local kernel estimation to the context of Bayesian inference on stochastic processes. Our model enables Bayesian inference in contexts when standard techniques like Gaussian process inference are too expensive to apply. Exact inference on our model is possible for any likelihood function from the exponential family. Inference is then highly efficient, requiring only O (log N) time and O (N) space at run time. We demonstrate our algorithm on several problems and show quantifiable improvement in both speed and performance relative to models based on the Gaussian process.
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